Introduction
- Ever since the development of organized policing in America, the
U.S. enters modern times in which it must couple with the fact that its
structures of law enforcement were built to severely restrict humans
rights towards people of color, particularly Black people. As protest
numbers towards fighting against racial inequities, police brutality,
and civil rights issues increase, it becomes all the more imperative to
reassess police agencies and prisons across the country to target the
many cracks that remain in the justice system. The Vera Institute has
worked towards compiling information on incarceration trends since 1978
through the use of COJ and ASJ datasets in an effort to reveal
disproportionalities in jail/prison populations, admission rates,
release rates, and more at the county level. Analysis in this report
makes use of said data.
- The following report aims to highlight differences between white and
black jail/prison populations in particular. Variables of interest
include: black jail population, white jail population, total
black population ages 15-64, total white population ages 15-64, black
jail admissions, white jail admissions, total jail admissions, black
prison populations, and white prison populations. Numerous
media sources tend to form comparisons between whites and blacks in
America regarding incarceration, which resulted in personal curiosity to
determine if most disparities were caused by the most populous
states, if admission rates were fairly equal between white and
black in comparison to their respective population totals by race as
well as by total admission rates in general, and if there is
reason to suspect of underreporting or a lack of transparency in the
data. As a result, incarceration will be measured based off of jail
populations and prison populations averaged over the years 2000-2018
from the culmination of all county data for state-level analysis, as
well as by admission number totals using the same process. This report
hopes to answer some of the following questions or curiosities given the
variables of choice:
- Have there been any dramatic changes in prison population by race in
the most populous states?
- Are the most populous states “to blame” for incarceration
disparities, or should efforts be focused elsewhere?
- Relative to a race’s population in a state, is the admission rate to
prison excessively high or low?
- For each black prison admission in a state, how many white prison
admissions are there?
- Are there certain states that lack accountability in reporting jail
data? Why is that?
- When factoring in the racial makeup by percentage of the U.S., are
jail populations on average evenly distributed between whites and
blacks?
Plots
Trends Over Time
- Description: The above plot displays the average total black jail
population summed between all counties within the 6 states with the
largest population in the U.S. between the years of 2000 to 2018. The
purpose of this chart was to identify if there have been sudden rises or
declines in black jail population within the 2000s and if the largest
states have the greatest impact on racial disparities in incarceration
rates in comparison to the white jail population displayed below. What
is most intriguing about this graph and resulted in its presence in the
report is the consistent downwards trend (for the most part),
particularly after the year of 2008 or so. Florida dropped by
approximately 7,000 individuals between the years of 2008 to 2013.
Another key detail to note is that the number of black individuals in
jail in New York and Illinois specifically exceed that of white
individuals in jail, even after the downwards trend. Beyond this, there
is some alignment in the minor peaks seen throughout the years for
multiple states between rises in black populations and white
populations, but the disparity is prevalent when taking into
consideration the proportion of black people in each of these
states.
- Description: The above plot displays the average total white jail
population summed between all counties within the 6 states with the
largest population in the U.S. between the years of 2000 to 2018. The
purpose of this chart was to identify if there have been sudden rises or
declines in white jail population within the 2000s and if the largest
states have the greatest impact on racial disparities in incarceration
rates in comparison to the black jail population displayed above. What
was most intriguing about this graph and resulted in its presence in the
report is the consistent stability in jail populations for New York and
Illinois, both at levels considerably lower than black jail populations
and relatively small in proportion to the overall state populations.
Otherwise, there is a lack of consistency in the rise and fall of white
jail populations, and instead less variation than that seen in black
jail populations. What is consistent is that, just as the graph for
black populations, the ordering of states with most to least individuals
over time is mostly the same. It should also be noted that the maximum y
values for this plot exceed the previous one, but it would be fairer to
acknowledge this as a result of the large proportion of white
individuals in these states as well as in the U.S. as a whole.
Variable Comparisons
- Description: The above plot displays the average number of white
prison admissions proportional to a state’s average white population
versus the average number of black prison admissions proportional to a
state’s average black population. These values were determined by the
sums of all county data of a state over the years 2000 to 2018. A line
of best fit has also been included using linear regression. The data
seems to have a fairly strong correlation, and the plot’s purpose was to
determine if prison admission rates were relatively equal or changed in
similar ways after adjusting for total population as a fair metric of
seeing what percentage of the total population for a certain race is
really being admitted into jail. With a slope of 3.46, there seems to be
a strong disparity towards the admissions of black individuals compared
to white individuals per state, with the x-axis only ranging from 0 to
around 0.004 while the y-axis ranges from 0 to slightly above 0.0015.
The states with admission rates for blacks significantly greater than
whites were mostly beyond the top 6 states with the highest populations
and instead correspond to many states that typically have a majority
vote in favor of the Republican Party, which may have some influence
over policies that exist in the policing systems of those states.
- Description: The above plot displays the average number of black
prison admissions proportional to a state’s average total prison
admissions versus the average number of white prison admissions
proportional to a state’s average total prison admissions. These values
were determined by the sums of all county data of a state over the years
2000 to 2018. A line of best fit has also been included using linear
regression. The data seems to have a weaker correlation and is fairly
scattered across the U.S., and this plot had a similar purpose as the
last to identify any trends present as a result of trying to “equalize”
black prison admissions and white prison admissions by making them as
proportions relative to total prison admissions. However, it is apparent
that this is not as well of a metric as the previous was based on
population within each state, which may actually be a result of the fact
that the total prison admissions themselves are skewed towards
particular racial groups. There may be a slight negative trend present
throughout the U.S., where increases in black prison admissions
correspond with decreases in white prison admissions, but this seems
more unlikely and is an indication that a different approach may be
needed for this problem, or a different fit rather than the least
squares method. This plot serves as evidence that not all proportions
are useful or lead to equalized results, and that our preexisting
beliefs related to research topics do not always have to end up being
proven.
Maps
- Description: The above regional plot displays the average number of
black prisoners across various counties within the 50 states between the
years of 2000 to 2018. An important note to this graph is that null
values, or an absence of data for the number of black prisoners, is
indicated by a value of 0. There are a total of 11 states that fall into
this category. The purpose of the following visualization is to
determine if black prison populations are simply correlated to states
with high populations in general, or if there are apparent disparities
regionally when contrasted with white prison populations. One key
observation to note is that the largest number of prisoners for this
graph reaches 40,000 despite the fact that the black population in the
U.S. overall is considerably lower than that for the white population.
The below graph corresponds to the above graph in that three of the
states with the largest populations also have the largest black prison
populations and white prison populations, which can be a combination of
large population size as well as skewed excess of incarcerations of
black individuals. To observe from a case-study basis, Alabama has an
average of 14000 black prisoners compared to 9210 white prisoners from
the below graph. It appears that in both graphs data reporting is
consistent in most places excluding the upper northwest portions of the
U.S.. Unfortunately, it does appear that the area known as the “black
belt” where there is a higher proportion of black individuals in the
U.S. exceeds the white population. Simply when given the perspective
that only around 13.4% of the U.S. is black compared to 61.6% white,
there needs to be a tremendous overhaul in policies related to
incarcerations and systemic efforts to eradicate the pervasive racial
bias that remains.
- Description: The above regional plot displays the average number of
white prisoners across various counties within the 50 states between the
years of 2000 to 2018. An important note to this graph is that null
values, or an absence of data for the number of white prisoners, is
indicated by a value of 0. There are a total of 11 states that fall into
this category. There are a total of 11 states that fall into this
category. The purpose of the following visualization is to determine if
white prison populations are simply correlated to states with high
populations in general, or if there are apparent disparities regionally
when contrasted with black prison populations. One key observation to
note is that the largest number of prisoners for this graph reaches
around 35,000 white prisoners despite the fact that the black population
in the U.S. overall is considerably lower than that for the white
population. To observe from another case-study basis, California, Texas,
and Florida all have average white prisoner populations that are less
than their black prisoner populations, differing in population by 5-8k
more black individuals. Towards some of the west and midwest, multiple
states exceed in white prisoner populations, which may be more as a
result of incredibly low black populations, or improved policies in
incarceration methods, and may require further investigation. An overall
takeaway here, however, is that a large proportion of states contain
prisoner populations with more blacks than whites, despite the
differences in these racial proportions within the nation, making it all
the more imperative to utilize these sources as a means to push for
public policy.